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global warming
Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes
The study examines the question of attribution of global warming to human activities by analysing radiative forcing and temperature time series with statistical methods, without climate model simulations. They also show how human activities have caused slowdowns of global warming.
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arctic
Arctic shipping access likely to vary for much of the 21st century
As climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions, its implications for marine access are poorly understood. Researchers from the University of California present projections of 21st century shipping on three potential routes, depending on the rate of climate change, the evolution of sea ice and ship types.
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high impact events
Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
To know in which way climatic extremes will be changing is crucial for designing successful adaptation strategies. Using an Earth system model, researchers at ETH Zurich demonstrate that internal variability may mask overall increasing trends in extreme weather events and will therefore produce irreducible uncertainties for decision-makers.
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sea level
Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300
There is large uncertainty about projections of global sea level rise, resulting in widely differing model results. This study conducted a survey of 90 experts which provided a probabilistic assessment of sea level rise by 2100 and 2300 under two temperature scenarios. The resulting ranges – e.g. a sea level rise of 2-3m by 2300 for the RCP8.5 – were on average higher than those of the IPCC AR5.
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A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections
Atmosphere-ocean interactions are known to dominate seasonal to decadal sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea. In a new study, researchers from the University of Siegen and others introduce an atmospheric proxy for the observed sea level variability in the German Bight. They find a quasi-linear relationship between the monthly mean sea level and regional sea level pressure fields, which they use for future projections.
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hydrological cycles
Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years
The study uses high-resolution proxy records from sediment cores to extend the observations of the ocean heat content (OHC) in the Pacific 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. This allows to compare the temperatures in water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters of the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum, the Medieval Warm period, the Little Ice Age and recent decades.
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marine ecosystems
Changing states of North Atlantic large marine ecosystems
A study from the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, USA examined the effects of climate forcing for 15 large marine ecosystems bordering the North Atlantic basin. The response to warming of plankton production and fisheries yields has found to vary across the North Atlantic ecosystems; so did nutrient over-enrichment in relation to harmful algal blooms.
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