The mismatch between expected and observed rates of Arctic climate change is most clearly reflected by the fact that despite the progress, climate models are still unable to predict critical aspects of sea ice changes and their timing. This mismatch highlights the gap in our understanding of the underlying processes and feed- backs, as well as their realistic representation in climate models.
To ensure progress, Arctic ECRA recommends to:
- Maintain and enhance our European multi-disciplinary monitoring capabilities, which have been effective at detecting recent changes,
- Carry out dedicated joint observational and modelling campaigns to gain a better understanding of climate-relevant processes and ensure their accurate representation in climate models,
- Study natural variability of the Arctic climate system and its representation by models,
- Provide more reliable Arctic climate change predictions and projections to stakeholders based on the output of improved climate models, and
- Develop schemes that provide improved information of climate change uncertainty.