There is an urgent need to increase observations in the Arctic and a demand for open exchange of data in order to improve modelled predictions of future changes. In order to provide a sound basis to stakeholders and politicians for decision making on time scales from days to centuries, it is important to enhance our existing prediction systems.
Arctic ECRA recommends to:
- Understand the role of sea ice and snow cover on seasonal to decadal climate prediction,
- Develop high-resolution models with an improved representation of key Arctic processes (e.g. boundary layer turbulence, double diffusion in the ocean, frazil ice and brine formation, sea ice mechanics),
- Optimise the Arctic observation system for polar prediction purposes,
- Develop data assimilation systems of the coupled Arctic climate system to effectively combine observations and models,
- Represent the forecast uncertainty associated with Arctic key processes in ensemble prediction systems,
- Liaise with the user community to provide relevant forecast products to stakeholders.