Modelling and projections of regional mean sea level is necessary in order to predict future sea level to help guide mitigation strategies. They need to be improved in order to provide useful local information for assessments of future impacts and adaptation. The development of regional modelling is one of the most important tasks today. A careful analysis of the interaction of the different components affecting the sea level change has to be conducted on semi-enclosed regional seas, as for example the Mediterranean Sea and Baltic Sea.

 

Research tasks:

The largest and the most uncertain contributions to relative regional sea level change need to be in the focus of research.

Ocean models should resolve the regional physics governing continental shelf and coastal sea level change on a local scale.

Uncertainties need to be reduced and confidence in projections improved.

Upper tail risks of regional sea level rise are particularly important for adaptation of key infrastructure, since they represent low probability, high impact events.

Decadal prediction systems will improve our knowledge of the system and the way we model it.

Reduction of emission scenario uncertainty is a scientific topic of socioeconomics that feeds back to the natural science research on sea level projections.

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