Evaluation and improvement of numerical simulations of high impact events, including assessment of the extent to which increases in resolution improve the fidelity of numerical simulations. This is crucial, for developing strategies to improve the reliability of projections for changes in high impact events.
Research tasks include:
Improving regional and local modelling of extreme events: Global high-resolution climate models and regional scale climate models require further developments to e.g. reduce the bias in simulations of the past and thus facilitate more reliable projections of the future. Smaller biases will also facilitate better coupling to impact models.